The consensus on the Airbus A380 is in. It usually goes like this: Everyone wants to fly direct to their destination, a process the airline industry calls “point-to-point.” Nobody wants to fly to a “hub” (or worse, a “megahub”), run through the airport or cool their heels, then get on the second plane to their destination.
Therefore, whether long-range (Airbus A350ULR, Boeing 787 Dreamliner) or shorter (Boeing 737 MAX, Airbus A321LR), fuel-efficient twin-jet airliners are in. Ungainly and hard to fill four-engine giants like the 544-seat Airbus A380 and the fading Boeing 747 are out.
So just eleven years after it entered service, the A380 will soon sit on the scrap heap of history. End of story.
Or is it? The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects 7.8 billion passengers to travel in 2036, doubling the 4 billion air travelers who flew in 2017 based on a predicted 3.6% average Compound Annual Growth Rate. “The world needs to prepare for a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO. But activists all over the world are fighting airport expansion, citing local quality of life and climate change.
Still, Airbus predicts the world’s passenger aircraft fleet above 100 seats will more than double in the next 20 years to over 40,000 aircraft, a growth of 4.4 percent per year. But the gating factor (pun intentional) creating bottlenecks may be the lack of available airport gates or slots. According to a little-noted Journal of Commerce story, “rapidly rising passenger and cargo demand could see hundreds of airports reaching capacity in the next 10 years.”
IATA predicts the Asia-Pacific region will be the biggest driver this growth, with more than half the new passengers over the next two decades. Yet the Asia-Pacific region is precisely where many of the world’s “slot-coordinated” airports, those at full capacity due to congestion and traffic growth, are found.
According to Lara Maughan, IATA head of worldwide airport slots, there are currently 189 full airports around the world, including 21 in China. “We have looked at future growth of congested airports; realistically there could be another 100 airports declared full in 10 years,” she noted. “Worst case we could see more than 300 slot coordinated airports in 10 years.”
So far, airport expansion does not seem to be growing as fast as passenger traffic or aircraft count. People who live near megahubs like London Heathrow, which is operating at full capacity, often fight tooth and nail against airport expansion. Congestion is expensive; in 2016 Heathrow set a record when tiny Oman Air bought a slot for $75 million.
Growing mass tourism combined with limited gates could provide an opportunity for increased use of jumbo aircraft such as the A380. By 2017, for example, the numbers of Chinese visitors to Australia was already 60% greater than the number of American visitors, 1.160 million to 705,000.
By far the most successful Airbus A380 operating model is that of Emirates Airlines and Dubai Airport (DXB). With 88 million passengers last year, DXB the biggest international airport in the world by passenger volume. The airport moves passengers from dozens of jumbo jets landing every day (such as Emirates’ own 105 Airbus A380s) to other aircraft taking them to more than 240 destinations across six continents.
Could such an A380 ‘conveyer belt’ scheme work at other packed airports? Candidates might include Beijing Capital (95 million passengers), Tokyo Haneda (85 million) London Heathrow (78 million) Hong Kong (72 million) Shanghai Pudong (70 million), Guangzhou, (65 million) and Delhi (63 million).
The A380 already flies in and out of many of these airports. Used correctly, the A380 could indeed serve as a true airbus, efficiently moving passengers from hub to congested hub. The passengers could then efficiently move on to their destination.
But adding the A380 to a fleet requires substantial investment by both airlines (each plane bears a $470 million price tag) and airport. A double-decker 555-passenger plane with a maximum take-off weight of 1,234,000 pounds has certain infrastructure demands. This summer the issue was on stark display when Norwegian Airlines leased an A380 to cover for its grounded 787 Dreamliners, but lack of an available A380 gate resulted in routine three-hour delays at NY’s JFK.
The A380 is actually an efficient craft to operate, on a revenue per passenger basis, but only when operated full. Although Emirates is acclaimed as the largest operator of the A380, Emirates passenger load factor is only 77%. Industry leader Ryanair reported a stunning 96% load factor. With oil prices poised to test $100 a barrel, airlines are leery of taking on more A380s, especially with newer, more efficient options available.
Yet Airbus says the number of cities with over 10,000 daily long-haul passengers will rise 19% from 64 in 2017 to 76 by 2027, an increase of 19%. Airbus sees these “megacities”, 80% of which face significant congestion, as centers of long-haul international travel greater than 2,000 nautical miles. In these markets, the A380’s megabus capability could ease megacity megahub congestion.
“The case is getting stronger and stronger for an A380-sized aircraft,” Frank Vermiere, the Airbus marketing chief for the A380, told the Washington Post. “The bulk of the market is still traveling through major hubs because simply put, it’s the most efficient way to get people from A to B.”
